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Pipelines, (Alaska Gas Pipeline, Denali - The Alaska Gas Pipeline, Mackenzie
Valley Gas Pipeline, Alaska Highway Gas Pipeline, Northern
Route
Gas Pipeline, Arctic Gas, LNG, GTL)
is your public service, objective,
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gas pipeline projects and people, informal and rich with new information,
updated 30 times weekly and
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Internet.
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AAGPC, AAGSC, ANGTL, ANNGTC, ANGDA, ANS, APG, APWG, ANGTA, ANGTS, AGPPT,
ANWR, ARC, CARC, CAGPL, CAGSL, FPC, FERC, GTL, IAEE, LNG, NEB, NPA, TAGS, TAPS,
NARUC, IOGCC, CONSUMER ENERGY ALLIANCE, AOGA,AOGCC, RCA and more...
2009
LINKS: FERC Reports
to Congress, 1,
2,
3,
4,
5,
6,
7....;
USGS Arctic Gas Estimates;
MMS hearings:
RDC,
Our NGP,
AJOC,
DH,
ADN,
KTUU;
Enstar Bullet Line: Map and News Links;
ANGDA;
Alaska Energy Forum;
Prosperity Alaska
2008 LINKS:
Shell Alaska OCS Study;
Mackenzie Gas Project EIS;
Join the
Alaska Gas Pipeline Blog
Discussion;
Governor Sarah Palin's AGIA Links;
2007 ACES tax bill links;
Department of Revenue 2007 ACES
tax documents;
2007 ACES tax Presentations;
2007 ACES tax news;
Alaska Gas Pipeline Training and
Jobs;
Gas Pipeline and Economic
Development; Andrew Halcro;
Bjørn Lomborg;
FERC's Natural Gas Website Links
WASHINGTON:
Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline Act;
History of H.R. 4;
DOE Energy Bill Position, 6-02;
Daschle-Bingaman Energy Bill
(Alaska, Sec. 1236 & tax credit, Sec. 2503 &
H.R. 4 Conferees),
Tax Credit;
See amendments, "Energy
Policy Act of 2002";
"Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline Act
of 2001 (Draft)" &
Background Paper,
8-9-01;Alaska
Legislature Joint Committee position;
Governor's position;
Governor's 10-Point Plan;
Anadarko Analysis;
U.S. Senate Energy Committee
Testimony, 10-2-01 -
text version; U.S.
Senate Energy Committee Testimony, 9-14-00;
Report on the Alaska Natural Gas
Transportation Act of 1971, prepared by staff of the Federal Energy Regulatory
Commission, 1-18-01
ALASKA:
1-23-03,
Governor
Frank Murkowski's State of the State Speech;
2002 DRAFT Recommendations to 2003
Legislature;
'02 Alaska Legislation;
Alaska Highway Natural Gas
Pipeline Policy Council;
Joint
Legislative Gas Pipeline Committee; 9-01 Alaska Models:
Canadian Routes,
LNG,
GTL;
HR 4 Story;
Cook Inlet Supply-Demand Report:
AEDC;
Commonwealth North Investigation
&
Our Article;
Report: Backbone;
Legislature Contacts;
State Gas Pipeline Financing Study;
5-02 Alaska Producer Update;
Kenai: "Oil & Gas Industry Issues
and Activities Report, 11-02";
Alaska Oil & Gas Tax Structure;
2-27-02 Royalty Sale Background;
Alaska Gas Pipeline Office
opens, 7-01, and
closes, 5-02;
Betty Galbraith's
1997-1998 Chronology.
Our copy.
CANADA:
1-10-03, "Arctic Gas Pipeline
Construction Impacts On Northern Transp."-Transport Canada-PROLOG Canada
Inc.-The Van Horne Institute;Hill
Times Reports, 8-30-02;
9-30-02, Cons. Info. Requirements;
CBC Archives, Berger Commission;
GNWT Economic Impact Study,
5-13-02;
GNWT-Purvin & Gertz Study, 5-8-02;
Alberta-Alaska MOU 6-02;
Draft Pan- Northern Protocol for
Oil and Gas Development;
Yukon Government Economic Effects:
4-02 &
PPT;
Gas Pipeline Cooperation Plan
Draft &
Mackenzie Valley Environmental
Impact Review Board;
Mackenzie Valley Pipeline MOU
Draft, 6-01;
FirstEnergy Analysis: 10-19-01;
Integrated Delta Studies;
National Post on Mackenzie
Pipeline, 1-02;Northern
Pipeline Act;
Haida
Nation v. British Columbia;
Indian Claims Commission;
Skeena Cellulose decision --
aboriginal consultations required, 12-02;
Misc. Pipeline Studies '02
COMPANIES:
Alaska Gas Producers Pipeline Team
Newsletter, 7-27-01;
APG Newsletter: 5-02,
7-02
&
9-02;
ArctiGas NEB PIP Filing Background;
NRGPC Newsletter: Fall-02;
4-02 ArctiGas Reduces Field Work;
BP's Natural Gas Page;
Enbridge Perspective;
Foothills Perspective;
Williams Perspective;
YPC Perspective, 7-02
MEDIA
REFERENCE: Alaska Journal of
Commerce; Alaska Inc. Magazine; Anchorage Daily News; Canadian Broadcasting
Corporation; Fairbanks Daily News Miner, Juneau Empire; Northern News Services;
Oil & Gas Reporter; Petroleum News Alaska; Whitehorse Star, etc.
EXTENDED CONFERENCE NEWS:
Alaska
Support Industry Alliance,
Anchorage
Chamber of Commerce,
Canadian Institute,
Insight Information,
Inuvik Petroleum Shows,
International Association of Energy Economists,
Resource
Development Council for Alaska,
Ziff Energy Group
LEST WE FORGET!
| |
Northern Gas Pipelines: Liquefied Natural Gas Projects
(LNG)
1. Background
2. Alaska
Support
3. Status, 2001
4.
Current Events: LNG
5.
Public Opinion Poll
6. Commentary:
Mead
Treadwell
7. Many other
LNG opinions
1. Background. Phillips
Petroleum Corporation launched the first U.S. LNG project with their
Kenai plant (LNG: Liquefied Natural Gas, cooled to -260 and maintained under
pressure with controlled release, or 'boil off' of vapors). The plant used
natural gas from the Cook Inlet fields, discovered in 1957 and providing the
economic momentum for achievement of Alaska's statehood in 1959. (NGP Photo
right, Phillips Alaska's Cook Inlet Operations Manager, Steven F. Arbelovsky, describes LNG process, 5-01) So, for
America in general and Alaska particularly, LNG was a proven concept. In the
mid-1970s, El Paso Natural Gas filed an application with the Federal Power
Commission to provide Alaska North Slope natural gas, then amounting to 26
trillion cubic feet (TCF) of proven reserves, to Lower 48 markets. The project
envisioned moving ANS gas along a route roughly paralleling the Trans Alaska
Pipeline System (TAPS), to the Valdez area, where it would be liquefied, loaded
onto LNG tankers, and transported to California (i.e. which then posed no
serious obstacles to LNG projects). El Paso then proposed to employ a
"displacement" scheme, whereby pipeline flow in certain East to West pipelines
could be reversed, thus providing Alaska volumes to points East.
FPC Administrative Law Judge, Nahum Litt, supported El Paso only as a "back-up"
to Arctic Gas' overland pipeline application on February 1, 1977. However, on
May 1 of the same year,
the four FPC commissioners provided their "Recommendation to the President"
in which they gave equal weight to the Arctic Gas and Alcan overland systems,
effectively denying El Paso's application.
2. Alaska Support. El Paso's
Chairman, Howard Boyd, organized a diligent public relations program in
support of his application. Retired BG John Bennett served as President
of El Paso Alaska. Messrs. Boyd and Bennett engaged in debates with Arctic and
Alcan nationwide in support of their "All American" concept. While they did not
succeed in creating a foundation of national political support, they did win the
Alaska public relations battle. They successfully argued that their project
would provide maximum employment and value added benefits to the State.
Governors Walter J. Hickel and William A. Egan were joined by most
of Alaska's leaders in support of El Paso while groups such as the "Organization
for the Management of Alaska's Resources" (now, Resource Development Council for
Alaska), raised a large, donated war chest of funds and lobbied Washington D.C.
and other important constituencies.
3. Status: 2001. Following El Paso Alaska's
demise, local Alaskan and powerful "Outside" investors formed a successor group
which believed that the true market for Alaska LNG would be the booming
Pacific/Asia market; this project became widely known as the Trans Alaska Gas
Pipeline System, or TAGS.
CSX Corporation is the largest shareholder of
Yukon Pacific Corporation, successor of this
project.
For the last several years, as gas prices began
to improve, several other El Paso successors have considered competitive schemes
for moving gas to Asia, Mexico and other destinations. These include:
a. Alaska North Slope LNG Project. ARCO
Alaska (a major North Slope gas owner, now Phillips Alaska, Inc.), Phillips
Petroleum Corporation, Canada's Foothills Pipeline Ltd., and Marubeni
Corporation (a major Japanese trading company), participate in a "sponsor group"
dedicated to advancing a major North Slope LNG project (See
Steve Alleman's 7-18 legislative testimony here). Yukon Pacific
Corporation once owned about 12% of this consortium, but has withdrawn.
b.
The Alaska Gasline Port Authority proposes a route for ANS gas terminating
in Valdez, with financing provided via a municipally owned "authority", with tax
free municipal bonds. The "Sponsor Group" above has considered Valdez and
Nikiski areas for a terminus, were an LNG project to be viable.
6/11/01 news feature.
c.
Cook Inlet Pipeline Terminus Group. This group takes a 'high road' when
compared with some advocate groups. It says it is "PRO-Natural Gas Pipeline
whichever routes are chosen". That said, it convincingly argues for a terminus
in the Nikiski area currently hosting Phillips' LNG plant, Agrium's fertilizer
plant, BP's new GTL laboratory and Tesoro Alaska's refinery. The "Sponsor
Group" above has considered Valdez and Nikiski areas for a terminus, were an LNG
project to be viable.
d.
North Foreland Facility and the Trans-Alaska Gas Pipeline. Tyonek Native
Corporation, on the North side of Cook Inlet from Kenai, proposes an LNG
terminus at their North Foreland Port Facility, but according to the Joint
Pipeline Office, the project is relatively inactive as of 7-01.
e. LNG advocate organizations (in
addition to those above) include many local governments and non-profits,
including but not necessarily limited to:
Backbone, Kenai,
"Our
Gas, Our Future"
4. Current LNG Events:
Post-2001.
2003Activity
1-11/12 Weekend Updates:
Fairbanks Daily News Miner-The guy with the gas line idea, Anchorage
longshoreman Scott Heyworth (NGP Photo, 5-01) has approached Gov.
Frank Murkowski with the expected follow-up question after the passing of
Ballot Proposition 3 in November's election. He is seeking $2 million to
fund a new Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline Authority. This newspaper came out
against the ballot measure prior to the November election. We said to vote "no,"
but couched it with the admission that we knew it was going to pass because,
hey, Alaskans have wanted to see construction of a natural gas pipeline since
they finished building the oil pipeline back in the '70s.
1-4/5 Weekend Updates:
Anchorage Daily News
Editorial-It's a fair bet that a
lot of Alaska voters didn't realize what they were doing when they
overwhelmingly passed Prop. 3, the natural gas pipeline authority initiative. No
doubt they wanted to send a strong message of support for a possible gas line,
but in doing so, they authorized a risky and radical venture: giving state
government the power to finance, build and operate a multibillion dollar
pipeline to export liquefied natural gas.
1-2-03 Updates: 07:17 ET.
Alaska Oil & Gas Reporter, by Tim Bradner-The chief backer of a new
state natural
gas pipeline authority is promoting a proposed work plan for the authority with
a $2 million budget, but Gov. Frank Murkowski's new administration is
being noncommittal. Scott Heyworth an Anchorage
longshoreman who spearheaded the campaign for a ballot proposition creating the
authority, presented his ideas to Murkowski and has met with Bill Corbus, the
new Commissioner of Revenue, Heyworth said.
2002 Activity
12-7/8 Weekend Updates: BALLOT MEASURE #3.
ADN by Larry Houle (NGP Photo,
2-02)- Measure
3, the All-Alaska Gas Line
Initiative that passed by a 60 percent majority, now presents state
policy-makers with the decision whether to fund a state-owned Gas Development
Authority. ... Measure 3 had nothing to do with the commercialization of North
Slope gas to Lower 48 markets. In fact, creation of the new state-owned Gas
Development Authority is now the very distraction that could kill the Alaska
Highway gas pipeline project.
11-22-02 Updates: 01:15, 01:44, 13:27, 13:36 ET.
BALLOT PROPOSITION 3.
Valdez
Star by Pat Lynn--In a strange turn of events, the Alaska Gasline
Port Authority, which was formed to build a natural gas pipeline from the North
Slope to Valdez, contributed $15,000 toward an effort to defeat that same
measure at the polls Nov. 5.
11-15-02 Upd ates:
00:01 ET. ALASKA LNG PROPOSAL. Entitled, "What’s next for Ballot M easure
3?", Anchorage Chronicle Business Editor Rose Ragsdale (NGP Photo)
has produced in this in-depth article outlining the possible courses of action
flowing from voter approval of a state owned Authority to build and operate a
gas pipeline. "The day after the Nov. 5 election, Scott Heyworth
(NGP Photo) sat down with members of Gov.-elect Frank Murkowski’s
transition team," the article begins. “It’s wasn’t anything formal, more
like scribbling on cocktail napkins,” recalled Heyworth, the chief proponent of
the All-Alaska Gas Line Initiative. “My task now is to convey to the
governor-elect’s transition team the important things. I wanted them to know
that we are eager to work with the Murkowski administration and that we have
ideas for how to proceed.”
NGP readers may download the complete article here.
Here is Scott Heyworth's Op-Ed piece also appearing in the Chronicle.
Heyworth was the chief sponsor of Ballot Measure 3.
NGP readers may review
our earlier reports here, including downloads of the proposition and the law
its passage approves.
11-12-02.
CBC-Whitehorse,
Yukon -
Alaskans have
voted overwhelmingly in favour of an initiative that could be the end of any
hopes for an Alaska Highway Pipeline.
11-10-02.
Voice of
the Times. An all-Alaska, state-owned gas pipeline may sound good, but
it would almost certainly be a financial nightmare.
11-5-02 (Election Day).
How
horrified will voters be when we wake up Wednesday morning and learn that a well
intended vote on an apple pie issue produced an unwanted law on Tuesday? Ballot
Proposition #3 is well intended. Like apple pie, its steaming aroma is
intoxicating. Who could not want an Alaska gas pipeline, new jobs and new
industry? I’ll vote for that!
Unlike
a piece of fresh, warm apple pie, Prop 3 offers more than meets the eye. Those
who patriotically vote for it could unknowingly be approving about 10 pages of
new law that isn’t on the ballot.... (Complete
editorial here.)
Here are other supporting and opposing views.
11-2/3-02.
Fairbanks Daily News Miner:
ON
TUESDAY, ALASKA VOTERS WILL DECIDE WHETHER TO CREATE A GOVERNMENT AGENCY TO OWN
AND OPERATE A NORTH SLOPE GAS PROJECT INVOLVING LNG ... NOT CANADA.
LNG DEMAND WORKS AGAINST ALASKA'S PROPOSITION #3.
On 10-24, Jane Lee of Bloomberg News Service reported from Jakarta that
Indonesia will sell LNG at prices about 25% lower than Japan is presently paying
($3.60-3.80MMBtu). China will buy the LNG at about $2.40/MMBtu (add
$.30-.40MMBtu transportation), linked to a formula based on $20Bbl oil. A
proposed Alaska Gasline Authority is on the ballot for voter approval in
November. Ballot Proposition #3 would create a government agency
responsible for building and operating a gas pipeline/LNG project, adding Alaska
natural gas to a growing Pacific Rim glut of new supply chasing lackluster
demand. A private sector investor, gas seller or gas buyer has yet to
exhibit confidence in the economics of such an Alaska North Slope pipeline/LNG
project though a majority of hopeful voters-at-large seem prepared to authorize
public support for the concept. -dh (Further
reference to Ballot Proposition #3. Scott Heyworth's
latest arguments supporting the proposition. See
today's AP story by Mary Pemberton; we first covered this story on
10-24. )
11-1-02 Updates: 00:01, 11:13, 12:54, 13:13,
13:28 ET.
Anchorage Daily News-Former Gov. Walter J. Hickel (NGP File Photo)
endorses Ballot
Proposition #3, creation of an Alaska Gasline Authority.
Other reference.
10-28
Updates: 00:24, 01:00, 01:32, 01:50, 02:10,
11:20, 11:35, 11:44, 12:10, 12:36, 14:05, 14:18 ET. Comment on stories below: Passage
of Alaska's Ballot Proposition #3 could work against passage of H.R. 4 gas
pipeline incentives. Canada's approval of Kyoto Protocol requirements
could add uncertainty to northern gas pipeline planning. These late
arriving variables added to existing gas pipeline trade and competition issues
give weight to our
earlier suggestions for action at the highest level before chaos determines
the outcome of northern gas pipelines. -dh
10-28-02. Scott Heyworth's
latest arguments in favor of Ballot Proposition #3.
Peninsula Clarion
By Mary
Pemberton,
Associated Press Writer,
ANCHORAGE -- ... Ballot Measure 3
would set the wheels in motion for a state-owned natural gas pipeline.
But critics say the ballot measure will confuse voters Nov. 5 and create
financial difficulties for the state in the years afterward.
The ''All-Alaskan Gasline Initiative'' would establish the office of
Alaska
Natural
Gas Development Authority under the state Department of Revenue. That
newly-created agency would be responsible for building the pipeline.
''The oil producers have been reluctant for the last 25 years to
commercialize the gas. This is our opportunity to do it,'' said Scott
Heyworth (NGP Photo-left, 10-02) of Anchorage, the initiative's
chief
sponsor. ... The goal would be to have
the pipeline in full production by 2007. Heyworth estimates the project would
initially employ about 13,000 Alaskans. ...
Larry Houle (NGP Photo-right, 2-02) general manager for
The Alliance, a trade group of oil and gas companies, said the initiative is
deceptive. He said voters will likely approve it thinking the project is the
much-discussed natural gas pipeline.
''It is an LNG (liquid natural gas) line to Valdez and there is no market for
that gas,'' he said. ... If the
initiative passes, the newly-created authority in its first year would have to
develop a more detailed estimate on the cost of construction, revenues to the
state and municipal governments as well as a market plan to deliver the gas to
consumers outside of Alaska. Even if
approved, the initiative could suffer from financing problems before it is
built, said Larry Persily
(NGP Photo-left, 10-02), state deputy commissioner of Revenue....
(More on Alaska's
Proposition #3.)
10-18-02 Updates: 02:10, 03:00, 03:15, 03:37,
11:16, 12:51, 13:12, 13:20, 13:53, 14:16, 15:53, 19:38, 21:32 ET.
 Please
see our expanded report/photos of IAEE's Prop #3 forum here; also, our
editorials on this subject: Anchorage Chronicle and Canada's Far North
Oil
& Gas Review.
See
our report: Yesterday's Alliance meeting addressed by ConocoPhillips Alaska's
President...significant gas pipeline related comments.
 10-16-02
Updates: 00:17, 00:29, 11:17, 13:05, 13:29, 15:07 ET. Yesterday in
Anchorage,
the International Association for Energy Economists presented an outstanding
forum on Ballot Proposition #3, the “All-Alaska Gasline Initiative”.
Roger Marks, Department of Revenue economist (NGP Photo-right), introduced
the program, moderated by
Rose Ragsdale (NGP Photo-left), Anchorage Chronicle. Speakers
included Scott Heyworth (NGP Photo-left, middle), proposition
sponsor; Rep. Jim Whitake r
(NGP Photo-right, middle), Fairbanks; Larry Persily (NGP Photo-left,
below), Alaska
Department of Revenue; and, George Findling (NGP Photo-right, below), C onocoPhillips.
(See earlier Prop. #3 reports, Alliance
and Chamber). Don't miss
our complete report, photos and downloads TOMORROW, followed by editorial
comment. (Ref.
ADN story by Wesley Loy) *
CBC-Whitehorse,
Yukon - ... Devon Energy Vice President Michel Scott says Devon has
cancelled plans for drilling and seismic work in the Yukon for this winter.
10-11-02 Updates: 01:45, 02:37, 11:03, 11:26,
11:51, 12:45, 20:20, 22:46 ET. MOST IMPORTANT, CURRENT, IN-STATE, ALASKA
GAS PIPELINE POLICY ISSUE-Yesterday's
Alliance breakfast in
Anchorage featured a review of Ballot Measure 3 (BM3), the Alaska Natural Gas
Authority. Alliance President Jack Laasch (NGP Photo) introduced
General Manager Larry Houle to describe BM3 and Roger Marks,
Alaska Department of Revenue discussed policy implications and implementation of
a law which passage of BM3 would create.
PLEASE SEE OUR COMPLETE REPORT AND EVENT
PHOTOS HERE.
8-13-02:
Anchorage Daily News, Op-Ed
by Nels Anderson (Photo), Independent Party Candidate for Governor-My
goal as governor will be to energize Alaska, energize our economy, energize our
education
system. Energize Alaska. I will introduce the necessary legislation that will
expedite the construction of an all-Alaska gas pipeline (Other
references). If the initiative to build an all-Alaska gas pipeline is
approved, I will announce my selections to the governing board and have them
begin their work as quickly as possible. Yukon Pacific Corp. demonstrated that
an all-Alaska gas pipeline is feasible. The oil and gas industry will never
produce our stranded North Slope gas until it is in their best interests to do
so. Alaska must take its gas from the North Slope and build a gas pipeline
through Alaska down to tidewater. I would like to see that gas brought down
through the Railbelt and have that gas and its derivatives used to bring down
the cost of energy in all of our communities in Alaska. I am concerned about
Anchorage's energy needs when the gas reserves in Cook Inlet are exhausted. We
need to find a long-term source of energy; the North Slope stranded gas is the
answer. I will introduce legislation that will place a tax on our stranded gas
on the North Slope.... (Note: Highlights of candidate's candidacy: New,
undefined legislation to promote an LNG project; Gas reserves tax on industry;
Cut government spending; Embrace Cremo plan; Alternative energy. No
mention of ANWR, Federal gas pipeline legislation or Alaska gas pipeline
incentives. -dh)
7-15-02:
Yukon Pacific Corporation (YPC), promoter of
a Trans Alaska Gas System (TAGS) and
LNG project changed management last year. YPC's Project Development
Director, Ward Whitmore (NGP Photo-right), has produced a revised
proposal for TAGS. Readers will find an abstract of the new
Executive Summary below. The full Executive Summary will be provided here
when it is released. -dh
The TAGS
project can be configured as a spur line from an Alaska Highway/Canadian
pipeline project, or as a stand-alone project from the North Slope to Valdez.
YPC is evaluating two stand-alone configurations: a Reference Case,
incorporating an enriched natural gas that provides for value added options, and
a Lean Gas Case, in which the value added options are reduced or eliminated.
The TAGS
Reference Case would supply the following six markets: 7.4 MTA (million metric
tons per annum) of LNG to North America; 4.7 MTA of LNG to Asia; 60,000 bpd
(barrels per day) of ethane for feed to an in-state petrochemical industry;
100,000 bpd of propane as LPG to Asia; 50 mmscfd (million standard cubic feet
per day) of utility grade natural gas for in-state use; and approximately 17,000
bpd of NGL (natural gas liquids) tendered to TAPS. The Lean Gas Case is
essentially the same as the Reference Case except that the ethane and NGL are
eliminated, the propane is reduced to 76,000 bpd and the LNG production is
increased by approximately 1 MTA. In both cases, the average flow of natural
gas entering the TAGS pipeline on the North Slope, including fuel, is 2.2 bscfd
(billion standard cubic feet per day).
This new
TAGS configuration is essentially a 12.1 MTA LNG project that generates revenues
from 17.3 MTA of total hydrocarbon sales. Additionally, the non-LNG products
are extracted prior to liquefaction, thereby minimizing the size of the capital
intensive liquefaction facilities. Project revenues are further enhanced
because a portion of the hydrocarbons is sold as LPG that historically has
demanded a premium price relative to LNG.
Economic
analyses show that merits of both the Reference and Lean Gas cases are
sufficiently strong to warrant consideration by entities interested in
commercializing North Slope natural gas. The TAGS project provides access to
natural gas, LPG and/or LNG to supply energy needs within Alaska.
7-13/14-02
Weekend Updates: Sat. 13:55, 13:58. Dillingham-Alaska
Independence Party Candidate for Governor Nels Anderson (Photo)
issued a press release today addressing Alaska's fiscal crisis and gas pipeline
issues. Anderson's platform involves establishment of a gas reserves tax
sufficient to generate $500 million/year, offsetting half of the state's current
$1 billion/year deficit. He focuses additional attention toward support of an
LNG project for movement of North Slope gas to Lower 48 and Asian markets. Anderson said
in the release that, "The Yukon Pacific Corporation demonstrated to the
legislature what the All Alaska Gas Pipeline would cost and how it would
be financed. YPC also identified markets that would be ready to take
our gas once the All Alaska Gas Line was operational. At hearings in
Juneau this spring, YPC made it clear that an All Alaska gas pipeline is
not only feasible but that the entire gas pipeline could be owned by the
state of Alaska." Anderson criticized
statements of several industrial and political leaders and said, "42,000
plus Alaskans signed a petition to build an All Alaska Gas Pipeline.
That is now an initiative on the November ballot. If we build the All Alaska Gas
Pipeline," he continued,
"we will have a project on line within
seven to eight years. This would get much needed new revenue to our
state treasury, employ our Alaskans, and provide a source of low cost
energy to all of our communities throughout Alaska.
2-6-02: Opinion, by Scott Heyworth-The All-Alaska route to Valdez down the existing TAPS corridor is a cheaper, quicker, more beneficial route for Alaska at about $8Billion, including that big gas conditioning plant, 3 compressor stations, pipeline, and LNG facilities/terminal in Valdez, and it needs no Federal help whatsoever.
“This gives the citizens of Alaska a seat at the table for the development of a gasline and we didn’t have that until this initiative came along. The signatures we’ve collected statewide represent the will of the people,” said Scott Heyworth (NGP Photo-right) chair of the committee. |
The Citizens Initiative for the All-Alaska Gasline Friday announced they had surpassed their goal of gathering 40,000 signatures for the November 5, 2002 General Election Ballot. In a release, the group said that this weekend it will deliver 42,105 signatures to the state Division of Elections in Anchorage. According to initiative sponsors, the Initiative creates a State Gas Authority which would oversee the construction by the private sector of a 800 mile gas pipeline parallel to the TAPS oil pipeline using the existing corridor. The Authority would buy the gas at the wellhead, construct the pipeline and compressor stations, build an LNG facility at Anderson Bay in Valdez and ship the gas to multiple markets along the West Coast of America, the Pacific Rim and also provide in-state gas to Alaskan Residents. Cost of the project would be about $8 Billion. The project would be financed by private investors, possibly including some percentage of ownership by the State of Alaska. The majority of the debt would be financed by long term revenue bonds issued by the Authority. By initiative law, in a section titled “Credit not Pledged to the State”, the Authority would not be indebted to the State or encumber the Permanent Fund. The gas markets would determine the project’s viability, supporters said. (Further reference here.)
2001 Activity
10-12: ANCHORAGE DAILY NEWS, by Tony Hopfinger-After 19 years of trying to build an 800-mile pipeline to move liquefied natural gas from the North Slope to Valdez, Yukon Pacific Corp. is downsizing its staff and cutting its charismatic chief executive. Jeff Lowenfels
(NGP Photo right, left-right: Frank Peake, Vice
President & General Manager, CSX Lines-Alaska, Snow, Former Governor
Walter J. Hickel, and Jeff Lowenfels), Yukon Pacific Corporation President said he will leave his post today and become a part-time consultant for the Anchorage company as Yukon Pacific's work force shrinks from about a dozen positions to just a couple. ... Yukon Pacific, owned by Virginia-based transportation giant CSX Corp., has done nearly everything it can to make the multibillion-dollar project happen, he said. It secured most of the permits needed to build the pipeline, and it has received preliminary orders from some Asian gas buyers. ... Now the little company that got its start in 1982 under former Govs. Wally Hickel and Bill Egan faces a fuzzy future. It plans to relocate its downtown offices to Midtown and keep on only a few part-time engineers. Other employees are being retained as consultants. ... "If the company is for sale, somebody could buy the permits and put the project together," said Scott Heyworth, an advocate for the LNG project. But some analysts said the idea is too risky, even if a gas company were in charge. Low gas prices and limited markets in Asia don't support the huge upfront costs -- estimated at $8 billion to $10 billion -- that would come with an 800-mile pipeline and chilling plant to convert the gas to liquid. "It has become incredibly obvious that there are lots of places that could get lots of gas to market at lower prices," said Roger Marks, a state petroleum economist. ... As for what's next, friends have suggested Lowenfels run for public office. He said he's keeping all options open.
9/5/01:
Press Release
For Immediate Release
September 5, 2001
10:45 am ADT
Citizens for the All-Alaska Gasline Initiative
Lt. Governor Fran Ulmer has certified the Gasline Initiative calling for a State Authority to
acquire North Slope gas, build, maintain, market, ship, and own all or some portion of a LNG gasline to Prince William Sound (Valdez). It also calls for building a spur line from Glenallen to the Sutton area to tie into the existing South-central gas distribution grid.
Yesterday's Division of Election's decision to approve our initiative to put a state-owned all-Alaskan, multiple-markets gas pipeline on the ballot is an important step toward regaining control of our vast quantities of North Slope natural gas.
Polls show that the vast majority of Alaskans favor the Prudhoe Bay to Valdez option for commercializing our gas. Of all the proposals, it has the best economics, will provide the most revenues for Alaska, and the most jobs for Alaskans.
"Now all we have to do is gather the signatures of about 30,000 registered voters in the next four months. Now is the time for Alaskans to take action and sign the petition," said Scott Heyworth, Chairperson for the Initiative Campaign.
Piping our gas to Valdez gives us access to multiple markets on the U.S. West Coast and in Mexico, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and China. The Valdez option is the only project that guarantees access to gas for Alaskans; this is critical because we're rapidly running out of gas in Cook Inlet. Finally, the Valdez route is almost fully permitted with near-investment grade cost-estimates. In other words, it's virtually ready to go.
"For some reason," notes Mike Macy, another of the Initiative's co-sponsors," the Governor has never given serious consideration to the Valdez option, leaving us with no recourse but put the issue directly before Alaska's voters, where it rightly belongs anyway, as the Alaskan people own the gas and should have the final say in its disposal."
The Lt. Governors number in Juneau is 465-3520 although she is in Anchorage today and this week. The person in charge of printing the booklets for DOE is Mike Mathews at 465-4611.
For further information please contact:
Scott Heyworth, Chair
CIAAG
(907) 277-9981
7/30: ANCHORAGE, Ak. Northern Gas Pipelines
(Also, see Ben Spiess,
Anchorage Daily News 7/31 review)—This
morning in Anchorage, Citizens for the All-Alaskan Gasline Initiative
representative Scott Heyworth announced his group’s intention to
establish an Alaska Natural Gas Development Authority. In correspondence to
Alaska Lieutenant Governor Fran Ulmer, he identified three primary
sponsors of the initiative, including himself, Tyrone Neel and Mike
Macy.
 Heyworth
said the effort was modeled after Senator Robin Taylor’s
proposed, SB 221. (NGP Photo-Heyworth with poll results) He told of public
opinion research results of a poll he commissioned from Ivan Moore
Research, indicating that within the Municipality of Anchorage, of 252
responses: 26.6% favored the Alaska Highway route; 63.6% favor an LNG project
with the Valdez terminus; and less than 10% having no view or other opinions.
Heyworth reported he has
already secured support for the initiative from the Alaska Independent Party
and the Republican Moderate Party. He expects to achieve formal support soon
from the Green Party and the Libertarian Party and is soliciting support from
traditional Republican and Democrat quarters. “It is a non-partisan issue,”
he said. “This doesn’t need to be a political issue.”
Heyworth supports
a pipeline routing from Prudhoe Bay to a liquefaction terminal to be
constructed in the Valdez area. From there, a fleet of ten cryogenic tankers
would transport the –265 degree Fahrenheit liquefied gas to markets in Asia
and perhaps the North American west coast. (See more background on
Heyworth’s efforts at
"Our Gas, Our Future")
-dh
7/27:
The Chairman of CSX Corporation gave
Commonwealth North (CWN)
members this morning his view of the
U.S. economy, Alaska’s role in it and status of
CSX
–owned
Yukon Pacific Corporation’s (YPC)
Trans-Alaska Gas System (TAGS).
Chairman/President/CEO John Snow said
the economy is the “weakest I’ve seen in 20 years…with the exception of
energy,” but that, “...we see a brighter economic outlook for Alaska than for
the Lower 48.” (NGP Photo right, left-right: Frank Peake, Vice
President & General Manager, CSX Lines-Alaska, Snow, Former Governor
Walter J. Hickel, and Jeff Lowenfels, Yukon Pacific
Corporation President; NGP Photo, below left, left-right: Lowenfels, Snow and CWN
Board Chair, Nancy Bear Usera)
The
Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases prior to this year resulted in
consumers buying less, Snow observed, …fewer cars and houses, which impacts
corporate and industrial production. “Even with all that, the American
economy is still very strong due to our strong productivity”. The Fed’s rate
reductions should again be creating better earnings in the next three
quarters, he said. Of CSX’s Alaska activity, he reported that the company is
responsible for about half of the inbound containers to the state and remains
committed to investments in Alaska: ports, containers, ships and rolling
stock.
Paraphrasing Governor Hickel and
redirecting his remarks to gas pipeline issues, Snow said, “To understand
Alaska, you need to understand Asia.” .
He said that over the years he
had appreciated the Commonwealth North forum. “Our support began with
Governor Hammond appointing a blue ribbon commission co chaired by Governors
Hickel and Egan. The concept they proposed was movement of Alaska gas to
Asia.” (Note: Hickel and Egan—who is now deceased—are also cofounders of
Commonwealth North.)
Snow said that since the
Commission’s report, YPC has spent the intervening time productively involved
in permitting the system, particularly in three categories: rights-of way,
export licenses and environmental clearances.
“Thanks to the good work
of Jeff Lowenfels we are very close to completing all requirements for State
and Federal permitting work.” He said the concept of providing Alaska gas to
Asia remains valid, serves Alaska’s interest, “has ‘Alaska’ stamped on it”,
and serves the needs of the Lower 48 and the world.
“While Yukon’s TAGS
project is viable and can move gas now to markets in Korea, Japan and Taiwan”,
Snow said that “…if another project goes, we’re prepared to make our licenses
and permits available.”
“The nature of these
opportunities is that they are fleeting and can’t last forever”, he stated.
“If we don’t take advantage of this alignment of the stars, it may be a long
time before such an opportunity returns.”
Then, greeted by
supportive cheers and some applause, Snow asserted, “We’ve had all the
studies, reviews, analyses and legislative hearings necessary. Never have
conditions been better. The world energy demand is outpacing supply. The
Bush administration supports energy projects. The Alaska delegation, pound
for pound, is the strongest delegation of any state in the union.”
“We’ve gone about as far
as we can go.” Snow concluded. “It’s time for the producers, the state, the
governor and legislature to seize this opportunity and commercialize North
Slope gas for the benefit of citizens, the treasury and the Lower 48. If not
now, when?”
Snow then responded to
questions. Addressing current challenges, he repeated that the company had
overcome the greatest obstacles, obtaining permits, and that consensus from
the state and producers was needed now: “…a will to make it happen.” He
observed that some say that if the gas is not developed now, it will always be
there. “That is not an attitude Alaska should tolerate,” he said.
He said in answer
to a question about state investment in a project that it could be considered
but may not be necessary. He said the important role for the state was that
of a convener, or facilitator and without a will to make the project happen
certain obstacles will be insurmountable.
7/18/01:
Jeff Lowenfels (Photo-right), President & CEO of Yukon Pacific
Corporation (YPC:
History, in progress), briefed the
committee on the history and current status of the Trans-Alaska Gas
System (TAGS). He identified TAGS Permits and Authorizations,
including: a "Presidential finding approving the export of gas; project-wide
and site specific final EIS; 800 miles of rights-of way; DOE authorization for
North Slope gas export; FERC final EIS and site license; and NPDES air permit
for the Anderson Bay LNG site. He suggested several acceptable variations of
the TAGS project, including a "Y-line to Valdez from Delta Junction," in
combination with an Alaska Highway project. Lowenfels recounted advantages of
an LNG project, including portability and service of multiple markets,
diversity of supply, security of long term contracts and use of existing
permits.
Chairman John Torgerson
inquired
about how the competition of new Russian Far East natural gas supplies to Asia
affect the economics of Alaska LNG. Lowenfels replied that such a project
"nibbles away at Alaskan LNG opportunity" (See
Russian Story in Archives, 7-13-01). When Torgerson asked about
YPC's major challenge, Lowenfels said it revolves around the producers'
decision to pursue an LNG project (See Steve Alleman report
below). Torgerson asked if a commitment of the state's royalty share would be
sufficient to support a TAGS project; "No," Lowenfels replied, "the state's
royalty share is not enough....” Lowenfels reviewed a YPC letter given earlier
to the Governor's Alaska Highway Natural Gas Policy Council. The
correspondence states that a confidential report prepared by Purvin & Gertz,
Inc. (P&G), entitled "Alaskan Gas Development Strategies", provided Governor
Knowles and his staff with numbers which, had they been "true numbers", might
have led to another conclusion. Natural Resources Commissioner Pat
Pourchot said later that while the P&G report was considered, it was
only one of a number of references considered when the Administration's
routing position was adopted. (Obtain Lowenfels'
PowerPoint presentation here).
7/18/01: Phillips Petroleum Company executives Steve Alleman
(photo-right) and George Findling, briefed the committee ( History,
in progress). Alleman is assigned as Commercial Manager for the
Alaska North Slope LNG Project, or Sponsor Group, consisting
of Phillips, BP Exploration Alaska, Inc., Foothills Pipe Lines, Ltd. and
Marubeni Corporation. The focus of earlier work, Alleman said, "...was to
innovatively redesign a smaller, market entry project where costs could be
deferred and overall risks reduced....” Alleman agreed with sentiment that
"...the East Asian market is very interested in Alaska LNG." The critical
question, he said, is "Under what conditions would the market move from
interest in Alaska LNG to commitment to purchase?" Due to many
LNG projects "fiercely competing" for Asian markets, Alleman concluded "Alaska
is not yet cost competitive with the majority of those other LNG
projects....” Alleman said that at this stage of development, the Sponsor
Group is working on commercial and technical ways to reduce costs and risks,
expecting to complete that work by year-end and within their $3 million
budget. He added that the Group is also "evaluating synergy around sharing
facilities with a southern route, lower 48 pipeline" and indicated the Group
would also "develop an overall permitting strategy for expeditiously moving
forward with either the Nikiski or Anderson Bay route and site" when market
conditions permit initiation of a project. Chairman Torgerson asked if the
partners in the study would be partners in a project. Alleman said that while
that issue hasn't been settled, there were a number of investment options for
participants, including ownership in the pipeline, liquefaction/port
facilities, LNG tankers, etc. (Testimony
available here.)
7/18/0:
The
Alaska Port Authority (History,
in progress) was formed by Valdez, the Fairbanks North Star Borough
and the North Slope Borough for the purpose of creating jobs and providing
income to Alaska and her communities via a tax-exempt gas pipeline extending
from Prudhoe Bay through Interior Alaska to Valdez.
Attorney
Rigdon H. Boykin (NGP photo-middle),
Bechtel Pipeline Project Manager Brent P. Sherfey
(photo-right) and former Attorney General/Fairbanks Attorney Charlie Cole
briefed the committee and were accompanied by the Authority's Vice
Chairman, Dave Cobb (photo-left in jacket, with Fairbanks North Star Borough
Mayor Ronda Boyles and Senator Torgerson). Cole stated that the
original concept was ownership and operation of a gas pipeline, in which
revenue
would be apportioned to the State (60%), to Alaskan communities (30%), and to
the Port Authority (10%). Mission would be to enable development of ANS gas
to maximize benefit to all Alaskans. Their consultants have completed cost
and base case studies, leading the Authority to now conclude that supporting a
“Y” line concept (connecting with an Alaska Highway project) will enhance
economies of scale. (A
copy of the presentation is available here.) In the question
period, Boykin responded to Representative Ogan that the project would not be
subject to FERC regulation. Senator
Pete Kelly inquired of any municipality owned interstate pipelines elsewhere, "not regulated by FERC". Boynton said there were two small projects of which he was aware.
7/18/01: Kenai Peninsula Borough Mayor, Dale Bagley (photo, w/
Fairbanks North Star Borough Mayor Ronda Boyles), assisted by
Borough Business Development Manager, Jack Brown, briefed the
committee as Chairman of the Cook Inlet Pipeline
Terminus Group ( History,
in progress) advocating
an LNG project terminating in Nikiski. (Full
presentation available here.)
He said that the "Midwest/Canadian gas pipeline is becoming more likely every day," and that "If the instate LNG pipeline is built along with the Midwest pipeline, both projects can share costs from the North Slope to Fairbanks, making both projects more economically feasible." Representative Ogan suggested that the earlier Sponsor Group presentation sounded somewhat "pessimistic", and Bagley expressed hope that the Group will ultimately "find it economic to put LNG facilities in Kenai."
6-4.
Alaska LNG Advocates release poll with
favorable public opinion indications.
5. Commentary: Mead Treadwell (Originally
submitted to the Alaska Business Monthly for publication.)

North Country Strategies: Alaska Natural
Gas in International Politics
"Every Which Way But Loose"
by
Mead Treadwell (NGP
Photo-right)
Remember the refrain, "Every
which way but loose..."?
In Alaska, we know it well. Our North Slope natural gas has been tugged in
almost every direction since its
discovery in 1968 and
completion of the TAPS oil pipeline in 1977. But to all points of the compass,
it is yet to
make a market:
Some, then and now, would take it South to tidewater to North American or Asian
markets.
Then and now, projects would take the gas Southeast, overland, via an Alaska
Highway route through Canada to U.S. markets.
Others, then and now, would go East, across ANWR or the Beaufort Coast, to join
McKenzie Valley pipelines for the same markets.
Some have studied going west, through the National Petroleum Reserve Alaska, to
more accessible Chukchi or Bering Sea ports for LNG to Asia or North America.
Even the concept of going North, in LNG submarine tankers, has been promoted by
shipbuilders in both the U.S. and Russia, under the ice to the markets of
Europe.
North, South, East, West is not the whole of it.
There's down: 6000-8000 feet in the ground, where the gas produced with oil has
been re-injected to provide pressure in the reservoir to promote additional oil
recovery. Some have argued all along that delaying a gas
sale helps Alaska earn more from oil.
There's also up - into space: a few years ago Edward Teller, "father" of the
hydrogen bomb, told an Anchorage audience North Slope gas should be used right
where it is to power a giant laser that would reach outside the
atmosphere to knock down ballistic missiles aimed at the American homeland.
During peacetime, it was suggested, gas could be exported by wire as
electricity.
The "Unsolved Mystery"
One of the great "unsolved mysteries of the Arctic," to steal polar explorer
Vilhjalmur Stefansson's phrase, is whether, how, where and when this giant gas
resource -the biggest in North America -- will find a market.
And any way it goes, given the fact Alaska is surrounded by other nations, will
most certainly have international aspects - supply, demand, construction
materials, financing, and last but not least, politics.
That leads to a companion mystery: what strategy should the State of Alaska -and
the United States-- pursue in both national politics and in international
affairs to finally bring about a gas sale from Prudhoe Bay?
Blindsided in the international market
The cold truth is this: whatever strategy has been tried to date has failed. We
can't quit trying, so it would be more charitable to say Alaska's strategy to
date has just not yet been successful. But whether the target market has been
North America or Asia, we seem to have been blindsided by international
politics, where some other gas supply -more "economic" or not - has stepped in
to fill a window in the marketplace.
Example one: ANGTS
Example 1: After President Carter overruled Alaska's preference for an
all-Alaska line to tidewater in 1976, state policy fully supported Carter's
choice, the Alaska Natural Gas Transportation System or ANGTS, down the
Alaska Highway through Canada. The producers supported ANGTS, and put money in
the project.
Then, as now, natural gas prices in the U.S. were high and supplies were
short. Project promoters spent hundreds of millions of dollars on engineering
and permitting.
Ultimately, ANGTS didn't help Alaska . But it did give political "cover" to
gas suppliers further south in Canada who wanted to export Alberta gas to U.S.
markets, despite the opposition of Canada's more populated East. The two
"prebuild" southern legs of that project were approved, built, and remain major
exporters of gas to the U.S. today, while Alaska gas remained stranded on the
North Slope.
Example 2: TAGS
Example 2: When the Alaska portion of ANGTS was delayed, and ultimately
"indefinitely postponed" in the early 1980's, Governor Jay Hammond enlisted his
predecessors Wally Hickel and Bill Egan, and Alaska turned to Asia with a
proposal for TAGS, the Trans-Alaska Gas System.
In the beginning, the Asian market was firmly committed to nuclear power, and
whether the market could support a large, new LNG Alaska project was in
question. But that changed in the early 1990's, after Chernobyl. From
1982 through today, Japan, Korea and Taiwan made commitments to buy LNG that
could support construction of at least three Alaska projects. But Alaska
wasn't one of them.
Producer economics vs. Alaska economics
Why? The answer usually given is economics. But it may be producer
economics, and world politics, not Alaska's inherent economics.
Ironically, many of the projects competing with Alaska in the Asian marketplace
for LNG have been owned or promoted by Exxon-Mobil (Indonesia, Qatar, Yemen and
Russia), Arco (now BP) in Indonesia, BP (Australia,
Indonesia, Abu Dhabi). Combine that with longtime conflicts in the Prudhoe Bay
field, where a gas sale may have posed a direct economic conflict to those
producers who owned a greater share of the oil.
The result: even today, Alaska's three major producers have never agreed to
pursue the Asian market together.
In both examples, Alaska has failed and America has failed. Canada could be
said to have gotten the better of us in the ANGTS exercise. And a host of
Asian suppliers has beat us in the TAGS exercise, possibly with the help of our
own producers and our own governments.
How so? For a time, U.S. and Alaska support for the TAGS project was strong -
it was U.S. policy under Ronald Reagan to prevent Soviet Russia from fueling its
military with major new oil and gas sales from places like Sakhalin Island.
Alaska was an alternative we offered to Japan.
But under President Clinton, energy security became less of an issue with Japan,
Korea, Taiwan. It has been U.S. policy under both Bush and Clinton to help
post-Soviet Russia bring oil and gas to market. Indeed, the State of Alaska
itself under Governor Knowles has worked hard to support development of
Sakhalin, an Alaska competitor, for the work it would provide Alaska's oilfield
service industry.
During his term in the White House, Vice President Al Gore flew to Indonesia to
cut the ribbon for a project to sell additional LNG to Japan, Korea and Taiwan.
And Governor Knowles did not even invite the TAGS sponsor, Yukon Pacific
Corporation or the Alaska Gas Pipeline Port Authority when he made his two Asian
visits in six years as Governor. Missions like that may be perceived as a
mixed message: does America and Alaska really want to sell?
Finally, while Alaska gas is big, and potentially giant in the political and
economic relations of the U.S. and Japan, Korea and Taiwan, gas sales are an
even bigger issue for our competition. In Brunei and Indonesia, for
example, LNG is one of the chief sources of foreign exchange. When our
President talks with leaders in Asia, natural gas is -maybe-one of many agenda
items. When other nations show up in Tokyo or Seoul, for example,
gas sales are often the number one issue.
And progress, coming mostly from free trade agreements...
Despite our lack of success in both spheres, the North American and the Pacific,
Alaska projects have made some gains in international politics in the last 20
years.
Among them:
In North America, the treaties and understandings dating back to the
Carter-Trudeau years establish a kind of "safe passage" for Alaska gas through
Canada. As late as fall 2000, Canada's Prime Minister Chretien was citing those
agreements during a campaign trip to Whitehorse.
We now have a Free Trade Agreement with Canada that has been followed with the
North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). President George W. Bush, even
before his inauguration, was talking about natural gas as a "hemispheric"
resource, and any Alaska project serving North America is likely to tie into the
infrastructure of Canada, the U.S. and Mexico.
Discoveries in Eastern Canada (as well as continued exploration in the west)
appear to have diminished the efforts of those who opposed expanded Canadian gas
exports to the U.S. In times past, promoters of infrastructure that
would serve both Alaska and Canadian Arctic gas were up against those who said
the U.S. energy policy was trying to "drain Canada first."
With Asia, the U.S.-Japan Energy Working Group established by Ronald Reagan and
Japan Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone in the early 1980's continues to foster
freer energy trade with the U.S.
That working group promoted, and achieved, the ability to export Cook Inlet oil
in the middle 1980's. And that was followed, by Presidential approval for the
export of North Slope gas in 1988, and approval by Congress, in the
early 1990's, to export North Slope oil. For some time, America's willingness
to sell in Asia was even a question.
The efforts of ANGTS and TAGS promoters to date have also educated a legion of
political leaders in Canada, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and even China about the
potential of Alaska. After group of influential Japanese diet members visited
Alaska in the late 1980s, Japan's government revised its gas import projections
upward. A Japanese Diet group continued to follow Alaska issues.
Where should we go from here? Are there lessons to be learned from 32 years of
tugging that gas in different directions? Perhaps there are.
Five suggestions to go for the prize
First, keep all our options open. Governor Knowles has said, "My way is the
highway," and given current market conditions, why not pursue the U.S. market
overland? But don't write off Asia. That market will grow, as
will North America, and Alaska should position itself to serve both markets.
Putting the producers and the transportation companies together (ANGTS, TAGS,
and the Gas Pipeline Authority) to pursue both Asia and North American markets
could help avoid delay and resolve confusion.
Second, beware of the ways we've been snookered before. Watch who owns what -
and what commitments are being made elsewhere. A "go slow" study on an Alaska
project can be a smokescreen to buy more time while gas gets to the market from
other areas. Is that the case with either of the producers groups looking at
Alaska projects to serve North America through Canada and LNG to Asia? One
hopes not. But the fact these are "studies," taken independently of
transportation companies, rather than active, concerted promotion begs the
question. Any state policy needs to be sure the gas is truly for sale.
In Canada, an Alaska pipeline would pay for infrastructure to get other Canadian
gas to market. The ANGTS lesson from the prebuilt legs must be kept in mind.
How can Alaska ensure we are not displaced this time?
In Asia, we need to promote U.S. LNG -independently if our producers are
conflicted.
The state of Alaska, as owners of the gas, should press its lessees - the North
Slope producers - to commit a supply to the Asian market while they pursue the
markets in the U.S. That might be undue interference in the
marketplace except for one key fact: we're an owner. And we have the right,
ultimately, to take the leases back for nonperformance in the marketplace.
Third, do what we can to make Alaska competitive.
We need to recognize that while there are fundamental differences between the
two markets, success in either one will depend on economics.
In Asia, gas is usually bought under long-term contracts. In the U.S., gas is
now sold in large part on shorter term contracts and the spot market.
Everything Alaska does to make itself competitive, cost-wise, helps our
long-term return in either market. The state should embrace the efforts of the
Alaska Gas Pipeline Port Authority. It could mean hundreds of millions
of dollars in savings to project financing, through tax benefits.
Fourth, be prepared for scenarios that can help Alaska gain a position in both
markets. An LNG project can serve Asia and North America (perhaps through a
receiving facility being placed in Mexico.) An overland route
could improve the economics of an add-on LNG project, or vice-versa. ANWR or
NPRA development could make even more gas available.
Finally, keep at it. Winning the battle to commercialize gas will mean a big
prize for Alaska. It will mean hundreds of millions of dollars per year in
additional revenues, and it will make more North Slope marginal fields
competitive to produce. It will help move North America and Asia to a cleaner
fuel. And, in North America or Asia, it will make the United States a major
player in energy security - something high oil prices have reminded us once
again should be a concern of the United States.
Mead Treadwell
Managing Director, Institute of the North
Alaska Pacific University
Office of Gov. Walter J. Hickel, Founder
P.O. Box 101700
Anchorage, AK 99501
Telephone 907 343 2400, x2216
Fax 907 343 2211
Mobile 907 223 8128
Home 907 258 7764
www.institutenorth.org
meadwell@alaska.net
Mead Treadwell is Managing
Director of the Institute of the North, founded by former Governor Walter J.
Hickel at Alaska Pacific University. He was Vice President and Treasurer of
Yukon Pacific Corporation from 1982-1989,
and was executive director of the Governor's Economic Committee on North Slope
Natural Gas. Opinions expressed in this article are entirely his own.
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